Both the Bay Area and the whole nation are enjoying the lowest mid-January positive COVID testing rate in four years, and no discernible winter surge, though experts caution the surge could just come late.
You’ll recall we had a summer surge of COVID-19 infections, particularly in the Bay Area, fueled by the so-called FLiRT variant. That surge waned, though at the beginning of October, the LA Times declared “expect another spike in the coming months.”
And this was expected, as it had happened every year for the last four years in a row that Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings combined with cold weather produced a winter COVID surge. But that hasn’t happened, as the Chronicle reports that California has seen far fewer COVID cases so far through December and January, even as flu and RSV cases have surged.
Running the numbers, as of January 15, the state’s COVID positivity test rate is just above 2%. That compares to positive test rates of more than 11% at the same point in both 2024 and 2023.
“We’re having a little brief moment of luck,” Stanford infectious diseases professor Dr. Catherine Blish told the Chronicle.
Yet that luck might run out, or rather, the bad luck may just be taking longer to kick in. The Chronicle also points out that wastewater surveillance is currently showing an increase in the virus, so another COVID surge could be on the horizon.
“If we look at other seasons, it probably will eventually go up again but probably later since we had a later summer surge this past summer,” state epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan said during a briefing this week, per the Chronicle.
Admittedly, adoption of the updated 2024 COVID vaccine is only at 27% statewide. But Californians have largely gotten the previous versions of vaccinations, and have likely developed some degree of immunity from having been infected with the virus before. This may be preventing the winter surge, or it could be a mirage with a winter surge still in the cards.
“We can never predict COVID,” the well-respected UCSF infectious disease specialist Dr. Peter Chin-Hong told the Chronicle. “The bottom line is having humility and not knowing what will happen. I’m hoping it won’t be a big deal this year because we have enough to deal with.”
Related: COVID Hospitalizations Hit Historic Low In California [SFist]
Image: High angle view looking down at the hands of an unrecognizable black man holding the test strip of a covid rapid test while waiting for the test results. (Getty Images)