LAS VEGAS — Paul Stone enjoys a good yarn, movie or book that entertains throughout and delivers a solid, if not surprising, conclusion. Indiana’s football team, for instance, has delivered a dramatic season.
“While I love the Hoosiers’ story,” Stone wrote from East Texas, “I’m not sure Gene Hackman’s walking through that door at Notre Dame Stadium on Dec. 20.”
After the 12-team college football playoff was unveiled last Sunday, Stone, a professional handicapper who specializes in the sport, spotlighted the Irish, a 7.5-point favorite over Indiana.
First-year Indiana coach Curt Cignetti went 11-1. Perhaps success in ensuing weeks might entice thespian Hackman, the star of that 1986 Indiana hoops flick, to play Cignetti (never mind the 30-year age difference) on the silver screen?
Favored by four touchdowns at home over Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, Notre Dame suffered a shocking 16-14 loss. The Irish responded with 10 consecutive triumphs by an average of 31 points.
Indiana’s defeat occurred Nov. 23, a 38-15 loss at national-power Ohio State that was not exactly unexpected.
“Notre Dame has a clear advantage on defense,” Stone said. “[Quarterback] Riley Leonard is healthy and playing well, and the Irish defense ranks high nationally in most of the key statistical categories.”
Stone not only recommends giving the points but favors a smaller wager on the Irish to win it all, with 12-to-1 odds at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point. All odds subject to change.
“In a year where there’s so much parity in college football and some team might come from slightly off the pace,” Stone said, “I think Notre Dame’s worth a shot at 12-1.”
A 36-year Irish drought
Stone is one of several experts I tapped for angles and insights into these new playoffs. I’m glad he favored Notre Dame, since I hold 30-1 (bought Nov. 21) and 22-1 (Aug. 31) ducats on the Irish to win their first crown since 1988.
I’ve also got Texas (+700) and Penn State (24-1) in the portfolio, which also highlights SMU (200-1, bought Aug. 14), Arizona State (70-1, Nov. 25) and Boise State (two at 200-1, Sept. 1).
Circa Sports offers 500-1 exacta odds on Arizona State beating SMU in the finale, one of nine potential title-game outcomes at that exorbitant payoff. The slimmest is Oregon defeating Penn State, at +900. (See chart below.)
The caveat for the Broncos and Sun Devils is that both received first-round byes and get to play quarterfinal hosts, exceptional hedging assets to guarantee profit.
Tommy Lorenzo and Sam Panayotovich are also bullish on the Irish. Lorenzo, a professional bettor in Southern California, sees value in Notre Dame down to 10-1.
“I have Notre Dame ranked highest, based on my power numbers,” Lorenzo said, “so getting double-digit odds on the Irish, which has a top-five defense, is worth a play.”
He noted that Notre Dame deftly avoided late-season “car-crash” episodes that smacked Georgia and Texas.
“My bracket shows Notre Dame getting to the final vs. either Oregon or Texas,” Lorenzo said. “At that point, given the current high odds on the Irish, there is an opportunity to hedge the bet to secure profit.”
In Boston, Panayotovich, the Chicago native and co-host of BetQL Daily, highlighted the Irish’s draw.
“It should beat Indiana as a touchdown favorite in South Bend,” he said. “Then it’s Georgia, who probably won’t have starting quarterback Carson Beck. The best part is, you avoid Oregon, Texas or Ohio State until the very end.”
In Tennessee-Ohio State, Panayotovich likes the home team, while pro ’capper and longtime Vegas resident Chuck Edel, another Chicago native, leans toward the visitors.
In the playoffs, running counter to bowl games, Edel puts a premium on players wanting to participate and motivations being high, and he gives a major coaching edge to the Vols’ Josh Heupel over the Buckeyes’ Ryan Day.
On the other side, Panayotovich said, “The Buckeyes come in extremely undervalued, and you know they’ve been stewing since the Michigan game.”
Why not Army?
In his back-room office at the South Point early last Sunday afternoon, sportsbook director Chris Andrews had surveyed the brackets for a couple of hours and spotlighted the Longhorns.
“I think Texas came out really good,” he said. “A home game against Clemson, then they play at Arizona State. I think [the Horns] will be pretty significant favorites.”
The handle for the college football season at the South Point, and sister book location at the Rampart Casino in Summerlin, began with a bang, tailing off the last few weeks.
Andrews predicted playoff business to be “huge” but won’t touch the three-week hoops tournament, “which is bigger than the Super Bowl.”
Ultimately, Andrews looks forward to a 16-team football playoff in which conference champions win automatic entry. Like Notre Dame, Army lost once all season (to the Irish), and it pounded Tulane in the American Athletic title game.
“What’s Army saying?” Andrews said. “Why shouldn’t they [be in]? Maybe they go to Oregon and are probably 25-point dogs, but what the hell? Alabama put up three points at Oklahoma!
“Look at the SEC in Week 10; they’re usually playing Western Carolina, or someone like that. So don’t give me the BS that it’s so unfair to these teams, because they’re already doing it. Why not do it for the playoffs?”
College Football Playoff
Title game exactas
+900
Oregon over Penn State
10-1
Oregon over Georgia
Texas over Georgia
Texas over Penn State
14-1
Ohio State over Georgia
Ohio State over Penn State
Penn State over Oregon
Penn State over Texas
15-1
Georgia over Oregon
Georgia over Texas
Oregon over Notre Dame
Texas over Notre Dame
20-1
Notre Dame over Oregon
Notre Dame over Texas
Ohio State over Notre Dame
Penn State over Ohio State
25-1
Georgia over Ohio State
Notre Dame over Ohio State
35-1
Oregon over Boise State
40-1
Texas over Boise State
50-1
Georgia over Arizona State
Ohio State over Boise State
Oregon over Indiana
Penn State over Arizona State
Texas over SMU
Source: CircaSports.com