Our Wild-Card Weekend six-pack turned out alright with a 4-2 record across the six game schedule.
The Bills and Eagles both covered, and I hit my totals in the Texans/Chargers and Vikings/Rams games. Both those totals (over 42.5 in the first game, under 47.5 in the latter) looked absolutely dead in the water at one point, so I’m proud of the way we knuckled down and fought to cash those tickets.
As I mentioned last week, we’re getting to the end of football season and there’s only a handful of betting opportunities left.
You might say, “Monday night’s national title game is a huge opportunity,” and you’re right — but not for me.
On principle, I never bet on my beloved Fighting Irish. I like to keep Notre Dame free and clear of this degeneracy.
Do I think they could cover the spread, which was Ohio State -8.5 as of Thursday evening? Yes.
If they don’t though, I take a loss in life and a loss in this column. Frankly, I’m not prepared to handle that at the moment, so I’m skipping that one.
So it’s back to the NFL this week, plus one Friday night college hoops pick. When football begins to wind down, college basketball begins to heat up and that’s where this column will likely live in February and March.
We’ll start with that basketball pick.
Robert Morris -4.5 at Green Bay
Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN Plus
You may not be familiar with the on-court work of either of these teams, but you may know a bit about Green Bay head coach Doug Gottlieb.
Gottlieb’s a radio host who got the job without sacrificing really any time from his radio gig, and Green Bay’s currently 2-16 and 0-7 in Horizon League play.
The Horizon League’s one of my favorite mid-major leagues to monitor heading into March. For reference, the Oakland team that stunned Kentucky in last year’s NCAA Tournament came out of this league.
Robert Morris is thoroughly middle of the pack, but they’ve got some good league wins over Northern Kentucky and Oakland.
Not a single one of Green Bay’s conference losses have been within five points — the closest was a nine-point loss to IU Indianapolis, formerly known as IUPUI, a perennial contender for “worst team in the nation.”
I think the line’s way off here, so take advantage and take Robert Morris.
Texans +8.5 vs. Chiefs
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
I didn’t take the Texans last week, opting for the over instead, but I did base a portion of my thinking on the idea that the Texans still had some juice.
It looked ugly in Houston at times this year, but I put some stock in them playing tough against the Chargers — and that’s what happened.
The Texans woke up late in the first half, CJ Stroud started to heat up and the defense feasted on the Los Angeles offense.
I’m betting on this team keeping it up against a Chiefs side that, even with 15 wins in the regular season, rarely found themselves blowing people out.
Kansas City wasn’t great against any spread this year, finishing 7-9-1 ATS, but only in four of those wins would they have covered 8.5 points.
Just about everything was close and down to the wire for the Chiefs this year. I think the Texans will be in the mix the whole way through this game.
Eagles-Rams OVER 44
Sunday, 3 p.m., NBC
I’ll admit that, as more of a college football enthusiast than an NFL one, I see totals in the 40s and I get excited. Obviously the NFL’s just a different style of game and most games actually end up in the 40-point range, but still.
Both these teams won this past weekend in games that came in under the total, but the Rams did their part with a great offensive showing and the Eagles didn’t need to do too much to get past the Packers, who really struggled to do anything with the ball.
I don’t think Philly’s going to be able to get away with that here, as Matt Stafford and company look real sharp heading into this matchup on Sunday afternoon.
But the Birds could dial it up if they need to, and I think this game will be dictated much more by the offenses than the defenses.
I’m thinking a 31-24 or 31-27 Eagles win is the final, and I like the over to come in here fairly comfortably.