There was a good lesson to be learned about following lines and paying attention in last Saturday’s Chiefs-Texans game.
If you recall, I gave out Texans +8.5 in last week’s column. I write these columns on Thursday evening, which for that particular pick was almost two days ahead of the actual game.
Of course, the lines are going to move, sometimes right up until kick-off, and this one did: the game began with Houston as 9.5-point underdogs, a full point up from the line in my column.
If you used a little bit of logic, you could infer that if I like the Texans +8.5, then I’d like Texans +9.5 even more.
The Texans lost by nine points. If you only got the early number, you’ve lost. BUT, if you seized the opportunity to grab the 9.5 points too, you’d be a winner (or at least have pretty much ended up even).
So, the lesson is: keep an eye on those lines right until the minute the ball is kicked, tipped or pitched. It could make a huge difference.
As it stands, the Texans were a loser for me — but Robert Morris hoops and the Eagles-Rams over both came in, making it a winning week.
Let’s go get another.
Last Week: 2-1
YTD: 8-5
Eagles 1H -3.5 vs. Commanders
NFC Championship
Sunday, 3 p.m., FOX
The full-game line for this one is Eagles -6 or -6.5, depending on where you’re looking. It feels like a few too many points to lay against a team that’s beaten the Eagles this year.
But the Eagles haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 11 — coincidentally, against the Commanders. They’ve led by 3.5 points or more at the half in 10 of their last 14 games across the regular season and the postseason.
These two teams split the regular season matchups, with the Eagles winning that first matchup in Week 11 and the Commanders coming back to win in Week 16.
Both game featured a similar type of flow: the Eagles scored 20 of their 28 points in the fourth quarter to win the first meeting, and the Commanders scored 22 fourth-quarter points to mount a comeback and beat Philly in the second.
Point is, I think the Eagles will win this game — but I think, just like the Rams last week, that there will be a Washington comeback late in the game that falls just short.
So I’ll play it safe and take the Birds in the first half.
Bills ML +105 vs. Chiefs
AFC Championship
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS
The Bills have been knocked out of the playoffs by the Chiefs in three of the last four seasons. Josh Allen has never beaten the Chiefs in the postseason.
It’s his time. The Bills were one of the two losses on Kansas City’s regular-season resume, and I think Buffalo gets the job done and exorcises its biggest postseason demon in the process.
If not now, then when? Allen’s put together an MVP-caliber season with 40 total touchdowns, and maybe more importantly he’s cut way down on the turnovers that plagued him through his first couple years in the league.
The Bills walloped the Broncos and beat Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to get here. They know what it takes to beat the Chiefs, because they’ve already done it this year.
The Chiefs are a puzzle to me: this KC team doesn’t feel as good as last year’s, or any of the previous Super Bowl teams, but yet they set a franchise record with 15 wins and locked up home-field advantage with room to spare.
I think it’s Allen’s time. That’s my next-gen analysis here. If the Chiefs win, they are the pick for the Super Bowl. But I think Allen gets it done.
NCAAB
Long Island University ML -102 at St. Francis
Friday, 7 p.m., NEC Front Row
Feeling inspired by my Robert Morris winner a week ago, we’re going further down the ranks of the college basketball world for this one.
The Northeast Conference is commonly one of the weakest leagues in America, with the top-ranked league team in KenPom’s rankings coming in at 215 (Central Connecticut State, for those curious).
A few weeks into league play, and pretty much everyone’s bunched up together. Except for the mighty Sharks of Long Island University, 6-0 in the conference with five double-digit wins in that six-game streak.
The Sharks just played St. Francis six days ago, holding the Stags to their lowest point total of the year in a 64-51 victory.
I know it’s tough to beat a team twice, but it shouldn’t be for LIU. Through six conference games, the Sharks have the best defense in the league.
They’re not terrific offensively but Malachi Fields is second in the league averaging 20.2 points per game, and both him and Jamal Fuller are starting to heat up from deep the last couple times out.
Purdue -4 vs. Michigan
Friday, 8 p.m., FOX
Last time out, Purdue fell to Ohio State in the program’s first loss at Mackey Arena in almost two years.
The Boilermakers are going to come out swinging here, and I think this one turns into a rout.
The two teams profile pretty similarly based on the numbers, Purdue’s been more efficient scoring the ball in Big Ten play but Michigan’s offense has been more prolific with 83.3 points a night in conference games.
Even in spite of what happened the other night, there’s no better home court edge in the Big Ten than at Mackey Arena, and even though I don’t think this Purdue team is as good as year’s past, they’re still a force to be reckoned with on their home floor.
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