It was a perfectly average start to the year for the column: two winners coming from the college ranks and two losers on NFL Sunday.
I said last week that NFL Week 18 was a tough one to bet and boy, was I right. The Falcons needed overtime to beat Carolina and the Vikings came out and laid an egg with the NFC North on the line.
That said, the picture is a lot more clear now that the playoffs are here and I thought I’d take a bigger swing this week: a pick from each of the league’s six Wild Card Weekend games.
It’s a good lineup from start to finish, so why not try to squeeze every drop of life out of it?
Let’s break it down.
Last Week: 2-2
YTD: 2-2
Chargers-Texans OVER 42.5
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., CBS
My initial take on this game was to take the Texans at home in a playoff time slot they’ve essentially owned for the last decade, but it’s tough to rely on this Houston team.
On the flip side, though: the Chargers haven’t won a playoff game since 2018, and generally haven’t been very reliable in clutch spots.
This year’s Jim Harbaugh-led Bolts may be different, and I really like the way Justin Herbert and the offense has rounded into form late in the season.
It’s hard to say the same about the Texans with the way they’ve limped into the playoffs this year, but I still believe that this team could get right and score some points.
It’s a fairly low total, and I think the Chargers will be able to carry the bulk of the load when it comes to scoring. As long as the Texans could hang around, I think we’ll clear the number.
Steelers +9.5 vs. Ravens
Saturday, 8 p.m., Amazon Prime Video
It’s the longest line of Wild Card Weekend, and I get it. The Ravens are rolling into the postseason, while the Steelers have lost four in a row. One of those was a 34-17 loss to the Ravens on Dec. 21 in Baltimore.
Pittsburgh also hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and three of their last four playoff losses were by double-digits. They haven’t covered the spread in the playoffs since that last victory, a 30-12 win over the Dolphins who were playing with backup QB Matt Moore in there.
I’ve taken all that into account, and I know there’s a good shot this doesn’t end well, but 9.5 is still just too many points for me to take with Baltimore. The Steelers have been good to me on the gambling front this year, and I have a 50-1 Super Bowl ticket on Pittsburgh that I’m trying to channel some good energy for.
Bills -8.5 vs. Broncos
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
It’s not much shorter than the Pittsburgh/Baltimore spread and I respect what the Broncos have done this year, but I think the Bills are the right play here.
It’s a tall task for a rookie quarterback to go anywhere on the road in the playoffs, but Buffalo’s got to be one of the toughest places to have to go — especially in January (though it doesn’t seem like the weather will be all that drastic this weekend).
The Broncos have only two wins over playoff teams this year: they took down the Buccaneers way back in Week 3, and they beat the Chiefs this past week but the Chiefs were resting basically their entire starting lineup.
This is an entirely different caliber of opponent, and I think the Bills will be too much to handle. With the Broncos’ run game not having much impact, there’s going to be a ton of pressure on Bo Nix here. I think he’ll make some good plays, but I think he’ll make some rookie mistakes.
Eagles -4.5 vs. Packers
Sunday, 4:30 p.m., FOX
These two teams met way back at the start of the season, with Philly winning by five in the NFL’s trip to Brazil.
It’s been a heck of a year for both teams, but the Eagles have gotten a lot stronger from start to finish and the Packers are in a bit of a bind. They’ve lost two in a row (including the franchise’s first loss to the Bears since roughly the Civil War) and are now down one of their playmaking receivers with Christian Watson tearing his ACL.
The big question for the Eagles is Jalen Hurts, who’s been in concussion protocol and missed the season finale (though he probably wouldn’t have played anyway). He’s back at practice and appears to be on track to play Sunday, so I wouldn’t be too worried about the offense.
I don’t think Green Bay is on the level even if Watson was healthy, and I think the Birds handle their business.
Bucs vs. Commanders: Baker Mayfield OVER 269.5 Pass + Rush Yards
Sunday, 8 p.m., NBC
I’ll be honest, I looked at both the spread and the total for a long time on this one and came up empty. The Bucs are favored by three points at home, the total is 50.5.
It’s a rematch from Week 1, where Tampa Bay beat the Commanders 37-20. Washington has really locked in as the season’s gone on, and I don’t feel confident that Sunday night’s game will be anything like that opener.
So I found this prop on DraftKings and it’s about as confident as I’ve been with any action on this game.
Baker Mayfield threw for over 4,000 yards this year and is averaging about 265 yards a game through the air. He’s cleared 269.5 with just his passing yards 10 times this year, and he’s had the best year of his career in terms of running the ball.
I don’t love Washington’s defense, so I think this is a pretty solid bet.
Vikings-Rams UNDER 47.5
Monday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Listen, no one goes out of their way to take the under, but sometimes you’ve got to roll up your sleeves, hold your nose and take the plunge.
Last week, I opined that the Vikings would cover and even beat the Lions because Detroit’s defense was dinged up and wouldn’t be able to stop them. Then, Minnesota went out and scored nine points and looked thoroughly underwhelming in a loss.
I’ve not been very sharp when it comes to the Rams this year but I think they’re going to want to grind this game out, play the time of possession game and win ugly. The scores of the Rams’ last three wins were 13-9, 19-9 and 12-6.
My confidence in Minnesota was shaken up enough on Monday night to avoid taking them ATS, even though I think they should be alright. So I’ll take the under.