HONOLULU (KHON2) – Due to enhanced trades, SO2 emissions are not expected to reach any of the smaller islands the next couple of days.
Returning trade winds will wring out what little moisture is in this resident air mass along the windward mauka slopes overnight.
Other than a sprinkle here or there in the higher elevations, statewide weather will remain dry through Sunday afternoon.
Surface high pressure establishing itself north northeast of the island chain will create a tight enough gradient back toward the islands to produce a few days of gentle to breezy trades.
A subtle increase in lower to middle layer moisture advancing in from the north will introduce more areal showers to the typically wetter windward areas and mauka slopes.
The general model consensus going into the middle of next week depicts falling heights downstream of a deepening Central Pacific upper trough diving south toward the state.
While there is less inconsistency between the GFS and EC solutions, the signal is there for a weather regime change Wednesday through Friday.
Uncertainty in this Day 4 into 5 more wet and windy scenario remains moderate regarding the development and timing of this trough’s mid to late week impact upon the islands.
There is a possibility that a closed off low will develop in the base of the trough as it reaches our far northern offshore waters late Wednesday into Thursday.
If this does evolve than all chips remain on the table concerning a myriad of higher rain accumulations, strong winds with vicinity thunderstorms situations all dependent upon the movement (or retrogradation) of a large cut-off low north of the state.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Southeast Waters.