<p>A majority of Washington state voters feel things will get worse in the state next year, according to responses to <a href=”https://www.cascadepbs.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2025/01/jan-25-legislative-poll-for-publication-final.pdf” target=”_blank”>the new Cascade PBS/Elway poll</a>.</p>
<p>More than half of the more than 400 registered voters responding to the poll think that things will be “somewhat worse” (31%) or “much worse” (20%), compared to 36% who responded with either “somewhat better” (30%) or “much better” (6%). The 36% figure is the second lowest since that question was first asked in the Elway poll in 1992.</p>
<p>The poll includes answers from 403 registered Washington voters, reached between December 26 and 30 via a live phone interview or a text invitation to an online survey.</p>
<p>The poll has a margin of error of ± 5% at a 95% confidence level, which means if the same survey were conducted 100 times, the results would be within five percentage points at least 95 times.</p>
<p>Voters had a more positive outlook for the U.S., their community or their household in the next year. There, 49%, 45% and 56% of voters answered that they thought things would be either “somewhat better” or “much better.”</p>
<p>“It’s very unusual for the state to be the lowest one,” said pollster H. Stuart Elway, who directs the Cascade PBS/Elway Poll.</p>
<p>Notably, both Republicans and Democrats had a negative outlook for the state. Typically, the difference between parties depends on who has control of state government. But while more Republican voters — 62% — felt things in the state would be worse, 50% of Democrats answered the same. About 48% of independent voters also felt things in the state would look worse.</p>
<strong>Diving deeper with the respondents</strong>
<p>Cascade PBS followed up with some poll participants to learn more about why they answered the way they did.</p>
<p>Khoa Nguyen, 28, of Lake Stevens, said the growing unaffordability of living here drives his pessimistic outlook on the state. He said he’s concerned about continued increases in food and rent prices as well as rising taxes. He also noted businesses closing amid rising costs.</p>
<p>“I only predict it’s going to get worse,” said Nguyen, who identified himself as an Independent voter.</p>
<p>In the poll, voters were asked how they would identify if they were required to register with a party in order to vote, even though that is not a requirement in Washington state.</p>
<p>Heather Drummond, 41, of Shoreline, one of the people who identified as a Democrat and also said she thought things would get worse in the state, said her concern with the state stems from the anticipated budget shortfall. </p>
<p>Drummond, who works for the state Department of Health, said she is nervous about significant cuts to programs and how that would affect various communities. In particular, she fears cuts to programs and other efforts that were part of the COVID-19 pandemic response that she feels would still be helpful today, she said.</p>
<p>Tracy Gibbs, a 63-year-old Union resident, was also concerned about the state’s budget crisis. She was unsure if the Democratic majority in Olympia has the will to overhaul the state’s tax system. Gibbs said the approach has been to raise taxes rather than look at the system itself.</p>
<p>Gibbs, a Democrat, felt the tax system — which leans heavily on real estate and sales taxes — was too regressive.</p>
<p>“You hear Democrats give lip service, but I don’t see them on their bully pulpits pushing this,” she said.</p>
<p>Gibbs said she is relieved there is a Democratic majority in the Legislature and a Democratic governor, but she also wants to see them come up with new ideas that can fix the state’s budget issues.</p>
<p>“I just haven’t heard any solutions being discussed other than raising taxes,” she said. “I don’t think you can tax your way out of the problems we have.”</p>
<p>Dennis Humbard, a 79-year-old Kent resident, called incoming Governor Bob Ferguson “greedy” and “selfish” and fears a push for more new taxes, including a state income tax.</p>
<p>Humbard said he’s already struggling with rising costs on a fixed income.</p>
<p>“It’s all about taxes, it’s about money, it’s all about greed,” said Humbard, an Independent voter.</p>
<p>Deb Shay, a Republican voter from Ephrata, also had concerns about Democratic leadership in Olympia. She expects Ferguson to continue the agenda set by outgoing Governor Jay Inslee.</p>
<p>While Shay doesn’t object to addressing environmental issues, she says the policies pushed by Inslee and the Democratic majority in Olympia have disregarded those living in rural areas, such as hers.</p>
<p>“Our lifestyle on the east side of the mountains is different than the majority of the people on the west side,” said Shay, 67. “I don’t think they look at the whole picture.”</p>
<strong>Return of Trump colors national outlook</strong>
<p>There was a much more partisan divide among voters on the outlook for the U.S. in the coming year. 91% of Republicans said they anticipated things to be better compared to just 21% of Democrats. Just over half of Independent voters felt things would be better for the U.S. in the coming year.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, President Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term was a factor in that outlook.</p>
<p>Drummond, the Shoreline Democrat, said she is concerned about policies based on white supremacy that could impact marginalized communities and residents, including people of color and members of the LGBTQ+ community. Drummond notes that she is married to a person of color and has a biracial child.</p>
<p>“Overall, it’s going to lead to a lot of fear and uncertainty,” she said.</p>
<p>Abby Croson, a 24-year-old Kirkland resident, had a more optimistic view of a second Trump term.</p>
<p>“I think [Trump] will do great things for our economy, free speech and foreign relations,” said Croson, who identifies as Republican.</p>
<p>Respondents were similarly split when asked more specifically about how they expect the Trump administration’s actions to affect the country and their lives.</p>
<p>A slight majority — 51% — expected Trump to have a negative impact. Breaking that down, 30% of respondents thought the impact would be “significant and negative” and 21% said negative, but that they didn’t expect Trump’s actions to impact their life directly.</p>
<p>About 44% of voters expected a positive impact, with 28% of voters expecting a significant and positive impact on their lives.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, there was a partisan split in responses. 98% of Republicans said they expected Trump to have a positive impact, with 73% of Republican voters expecting a significant impact directly to their life.</p>
<p>In contrast, 93% of Democrats said Trump’s impact would be negative.</p>
<p>Gibbs, the Democrat from Union, said she was concerned about Trump’s health care policies as she is currently on Medicare. She’s also worried about tariffs that could impact the cost of items she buys and harm industries like agriculture. She worries about the adverse effects of Trump pushing for tariffs again.</p>
<p>Just over half of Independent voters said they felt Trump would have a positive impact in office compared to 40% who felt he would have a negative impact.</p>
<p>Humbard said he was hopeful that some policies, such as one that would increase petroleum production, would lower the cost of not just gasoline, but other items that use it directly or indirectly.</p>
<p>Nguyen said that in comparing Trump and Biden’s presidential terms, he felt the country fared better under Trump. He also felt Trump would take a more decisive and assertive approach to foreign affairs.</p>
<p>Croson said she felt Trump’s policies could reduce inflation and improve the economy, and it would trickle down to voters like her. She hopes to buy a house in the next four years, and she believes that will be more possible with Trump’s fiscal policies. “I’m excited for another round of what we had in 2016,” she said.</p>
<strong>Immigration</strong>
<p>Immigration was also a factor for voters who had a positive outlook for Trump’s second term.</p>
<p>Shay, the Ephrata Republican, said she did not vote for Trump because she did not feel someone convicted of a crime should be in office and questioned his honesty. But she says she does align with Trump’s views on immigration.</p>
<p>She said while she feels for people who must flee countries, she also wants immigrants to go through a proper legal process. “We can’t take in everybody,” she said. “We have to close the door sometimes.”</p>
<p>The poll asked respondents whether they think Washington state should cooperate or resist Trump’s stated plans to deport undocumented immigrants. A slight majority — 51% — responded that Washington state officials should cooperate. Washington state officials have been vocal about being a sanctuary for undocumented immigrants and resisting Trump’s deportation plans.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, 96% of Republicans supported cooperating with Trump’s deportation plans. A majority of Independents — 58% — also felt the state should cooperate.</p>
<p>Nguyen, the Lake Stevens resident, said he knows firsthand the importance of immigration. His parents emigrated from Vietnam, and Nguyen believes he received better opportunities.</p>
<p>Nguyen also acknowledged that reform of the immigration system is needed to expedite the process.</p>
<p>But he also feels the legal process is there to protect the people who go through the process and to protect the country itself. He feels allowing more open borders leads to negative impacts, including crime. “I’m for immigration. I just want to do it the legal way so we can limit those issues,” he said.</p>
<p>About 40% of voters advocated resisting Trump deportation efforts, including 77% of Democrats and 67% of Seattle residents.</p>
<p>Drummond said she feels deportations would harm several Washington state industries, such as agriculture, that depend on an immigrant workforce. “I think it’s shortsighted to think so many industries are going to function without that critical support,” she said.</p>
<p>Gibbs, the Union Democrat, responded that the state should cooperate, part of a small group — 15% — of Democrats who agreed.</p>
<p>While she’s not, in principle, for deporting immigrants, she is concerned about the other possible effects of the state resisting Trump’s efforts.</p>
<p>With this issue, pragmatism tops the prevailing party position, Gibbs said. </p>
<p>She envisions a scenario of federal funds being cut if the state doesn’t comply. “Does it hurt more people in the state if our funding is cut off?” she asked. “While I’m for immigrants, our priority needs to be our citizens.”</p>
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<p><strong>Topics:</strong> <a href=”https://www.cascadepbs.org/cascade-pbselway-poll” hreflang=”en”>Cascade PBS/Elway Poll</a>, <a href=”https://www.cascadepbs.org/local-politics” hreflang=”en”>Local Politics</a>, <a href=”https://www.cascadepbs.org/donald-trump” hreflang=”en”>Donald Trump</a>, <a href=”https://www.cascadepbs.org/politics-0″ hreflang=”en”>politics</a></p>
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