While the peak of hurricane season is almost two months behind us, the month of November is no stranger to tropical cyclone development.
A common spot for late-season tropical systems is the Caribbean Sea. Disturbed weather in the area has the potential to develop into the next named tropical storm of the already deadly 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Disturbance still in developing stages
As of Sunday evening, a broad area of low pressure is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Earlier in the day, a NOAA hurricane hunter plane investigated the system and found an area of low pressure has formed but has not yet become organized enough to classify it as a tropical depression.
Satellite imagery of a disturbance that will likely become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday. Storm Team 27.
Current atmospheric conditions are favorable for gradual tropical cyclone development over the next several days, and the storm is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday.
Early forecasts can still change
While a tropical system is still in the developing stages, computer model data has many variables to consider for an extended forecast. Currently, the storm is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane this week as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Thereafter, potential solutions diverge on exactly where the system will go and how strong it will be. Vertical wind shear (changing of wind speed and intensity with height) is expected to increase this week in the Gulf of Mexico, which could inhibit further strengthening. Steering currents and upper-level wind patterns would have a different effect on a stronger storm if it doesn’t weaken in the Gulf.
All of these variables show the storm is still early in the game regarding potential strength, track and impacts.
National Hurricane Center’s forecast track of the disturbance in the Caribbean Sea Sunday evening. Uncertainty late-week shows that areas from Texas to Florida could be impacted. Eventually, this system could pull moisture into the Youngstown area late next weekend. Storm Team 27.
The bottom line
As this system develops, the first areas to feel impacts will be the Caribbean Islands of Jamaica and Cuba. Thereafter, the Florida Keys could feel some impacts from the storm as it moves northward.
Right now, with the track still quite uncertain, all residents along the Gulf Coast of the United States should stay tuned to the track and potential impacts of this system.
While still plenty of days away, we could see some impacts locally in rainfall as this storm moves northward. This would not be until next Sunday or later. You can always check the latest 7-Day Forecast for detailed information on the system’s potential impact on our weather.