LAS VEGAS — Since 2009, when Real Salt Lake zapped them from the MLS Cup semifinals on penalty kicks, the Fire are 0-2 in the postseason and have been competing on a severely slippery-sloped pitch away from home.
In that ’09 campaign, the Fire recorded a league-best 6-3-6 away record. Since then, they have gone 41-143-63 on the highway, a brutal .294 winning percentage.
However, those who have taken a position on those home sides plus half a goal (making the draw a wagering victory) have cashed at an 83.4% clip (206-41). Those home teams win at a 57.9% (143-104) rate.
Since 2018, when I began charting those trends, they’re 85.8% and 61.1%, respectively. The 2025 MLS season starts next month.
I don’t wager religiously against the Fire on the road, by taking the home team plus a half-goal, or giving half a goal for the outright win. Discretion is paramount. At times, though, those tacks are employable.
Take the Fire’s Sept. 22 match at Montreal. OddsPortal.com, a superb soccer resource, recorded a -330 price (risk $330 to win $100) on the home team getting a half-goal.
That’s pricey, so it’s smart to tie that to another moneyline favorite, in a soccer match or an NFL game, to mitigate the cost.
Giving a half-goal, Montreal was +103. It won 2-0.
Carmine Bianco, WagerTalk’s Toronto-based ace soccer handicapper, noted that “tough vig,” (vigorish) in taking half a goal with the home side, typically an Asian Handicap offering also available at DraftKings.
Of course, professional punters do not traffic in such parlays required to soften that cost. I am not a pro. This is about entertainment, disposable income and responsibility.
Bianco watched Fire matches, too.
“And what stands out is they allowed at least a goal in 15 of 17 games on the road last season, and two-plus in 10 of 17,” he said. “So taking the home team total would be a profitable angle at a reduced vig.”
POSITIVE FIRE MOVES
Bianco favors the Fire having hired as coach the experienced Gregg Berhalter, who ran the Crew for five years. He’s also the lone former U.S. national team player who has coached that squad.
“And it’s always good to have an owner [Joe Mansueto] who will spend money,” -Bianco said. “They’ll need to do that and add a couple of DPs.”
Some type of dalliance with Brazilian striker Neymar two weeks ago (as a potential “designated player”) evaporated quickly. Fortunately, I say, since I consider him a past-his-prime brittle thespian.
A Toronto FC season-ticket holder, -Bianco also liked that the Fire added Belgian striker Hugo Cuypers last season and British defender Jack Elliott in December.
“That helps them defensively,” Bianco said, “but they need to add scoring up front.”
He said 100-to-1 title odds don’t suggest imminent glory for the Fire. A realistic wager, according to Bianco, is making the playoffs, comprised of nine teams per conference.
Those odds haven’t been released yet. A keen MLS ticket, Bianco said, is Inter Miami, a league-best 22-4-8 last season but a first-round playoff loser to Atlanta United FC. Miami is +350 to +400 to win it all.
ATLÉTICO MAGNIFICO
I mark Fire away matches on a calendar, as reminders, and certain Euro confrontations, such as when Atlético Madrid plays Getafe CF.
The last 26 times they’ve met, Atlético is 21-0-5 against Getafe, with a 51-9 goal differential. Getafe last defeated Atlético 3-2 on Nov. 6, 2011; in their ensuing 17 matches, Atlético went 15-0-2 and tallied all 31 goals.
Atlético is 30-4-11 all-time against Getafe, with a 78-26 goals edge. On Dec. 15, Atlético won 1-0 at home. They meet again in quaint Estadio Coliseum, in the Madrid subdivision of Getafe, on March 9. Atlético (44 points) entered the week in second place of La Liga, nipping at Real Madrid (46).
THE GLOBAL STAGE
Bianco highlighted his +600 preseason ticket on Liverpool to win the English -Premier League over ever-dominant but penalty-awaiting Manchester City.
With 130 allegations of Financial Fair Play foul-ups, over a 10-year period, a City verdict has been expected to result in fines, points reduction and/or relegation.
“The markets now have [Liverpool] at -450 to win the title,” Bianco said, “so I like where I am placed at the moment.”
All odds subject to change.
Relegation odds regarding Everton, at +275, have piqued his interest, too, since it scored a woeful 15 goals in its first 20 matches. Bianco also suggested 12-to-1 odds on Man City getting relegated to be worthwhile.
He noted that European books have City at even money to be deducted points.
Bianco nabbed Inter Milan, at a preseason -136, to repeat as Serie A champion, and he said current -145 odds represent value.
Napoli sits atop the Italian top flight but has +200 title odds, since upcoming matches include Juventus, Roma, Lazio, Inter Milan AC Milan, Fiorentina and Bologna.
“A land mine of tough games,” Bianco said. “[Napoli is] destined to drop points, sending that -145 on Inter likely into the -400 to -500 region.”
Finally, with the World Cup on deck next year — to be staged in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico — Bianco recommended waiting until this summer, if not the fall, to shop for futures tickets.
“I’m leery of any [World Cup] futures -until deeper into 2025,” Bianco said, “to avoid -being on the wrong end of an injury to key players.”