College football can play “We’re Just Like the NFL!” all it wants with its expanded, 12-team playoff and big, fancy bracket.
But a theme of the CFP has been that its seeding of the field is — beyond determining who plays whom, and where — essentially meaningless. In the NFL, the Super Bowl favorites are teams with the best records, the Lions and Chiefs, which only makes sense. In the CFP, though, the highest-seeded teams have gone straight out the window. None of the conference champions in the field even won a game, lower-seeded teams have sauntered onto some of the biggest bowl stages as double-digit favorites and, now that we’re down to a final four, it’s the team seeded eighth in this tournament, two-loss Ohio State, that everybody is expecting to romp to the championship.
It’s still all about the talent on the field in college football, and the Buckeyes have had more of it than any other team since Day 1 of training camp. More than Oregon and Michigan, which managed to beat the Buckeyes in the regular season. More than Georgia or Alabama. Certainly more than any of their fellow semifinalists — Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame.
After manhandling Tennessee and Oregon in the playoff, OSU is a less-than-even-money bet to win it all. The Longhorns, Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions each are in the 5-to-1 range. According to multiple betting sites, the Buckeyes would be favored in a potential final against Notre Dame or Penn State by approximately 10 points.
This is a runaway train we’re talking about, people. Might as well go ahead and start clipping that scarlet and gray construction paper into confetti.
“Same guys in the room as [were] there a month ago,” coach Ryan Day told reporters, attempting to tamp down growing expectations. “Nothing that’s happened in the past, or really the noise [from outside the team], has anything to do with our preparation, our focus and our process. That’s what we’ve been dialed into.”
Let’s look at the games that will decide the championship matchup.
Orange Bowl: 6 Penn State (+1½) vs. 7 Notre Dame (6:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN)
Aside from having tight end Tyler Warren, one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the country, on its side, not to mention stellar running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and unblockable pass usher Abdul Carter, Penn State (13-2) also has a significant edge in rest and preparation time. It beat Boise State 31-14 on New Year’s Eve, two full days before the Irish (13-1) outclassed Georgia 23-10. Considering how many injuries the Irish have dealt with this season, this hardly is ideal for them.
But there are some reasons to believe in the Irish, among them:
• They’ve beaten far better opponents through two rounds of the playoff.
• They’ve covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.
• Their defense has had major success at shutting down tight ends, particularly because safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler are so good.
• PSU coach James Franklin is 1-14 against top-five opponents at PSU. The Irish are ranked fifth and third, respectively, by the CFP and the AP.
No less important than any of those things has been this team’s knack for overcoming tough blows in the injury department and the huge contributions it has gotten from non-stars in vital moments.
The Irish have had to patch things together along both lines, but so far it has worked. And just look at the critical stretch in the win over Georgia: Linebacker Jaiden Ausberry, a non-starter, recovered a first-quarter fumble at the Irish 10, ending a 14-play, eight-minute Bulldogs drive with nothing to show for it. After the Irish went up 6-3 with 39 seconds left in the half, end RJ Oben delivered a sack-fumble and tackle Junior Tuihalamaka — another non-starter — recovered the ball deep in Georgia territory to set up a game-changing touchdown just before the half. Then, in stunning fashion, Jayden Harrison returned the second-half kick 98 yards for a touchdown, breaking the Bulldogs’ backs. All those Irish names are essentially role players.
“We cannot be obsessed with the role as much as the work you put into the role you’re given,” coach Marcus Freeman said.
There is no question this Irish ride could end Thursday in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Nittany Lions are capable of beating anybody. But Freeman keeps making all the right moves, QB Riley Leonard keeps lowering his shoulders for clutch first downs in the run game, the defense keeps delivering and the team mojo couldn’t be better. I’ll take the Irish, 23-20.
Cotton Bowl: 5 Texas (+5½) vs. 8 Ohio State (6:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN)
The Buckeyes (12-2) have routed Tennessee and Oregon during this playoff by a combined differential of 45 points. They’ve outgained those teams by nearly 500 yards. Quarterback Will Howard has been on point, and wideout Jeremiah Smith has been Superman. Meanwhile, 12 sacks from the defense have blinded two very accomplished, but completely helpless, opponents.
The Longhorns (13-2) owe zero apologies for how they’ve gotten here, though a route through Clemson and Arizona State doesn’t exactly impress. The passing game has been coming and going. The defense was lucky to get out of the quarterfinals alive.
With the game in Arlington, Texas, the point spread understandably isn’t very big. But it isn’t big enough. Buckeyes, 31-21.