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By Johnny Gallick
On Nov. 14, the Alexander Hamilton Society hosted Dr. Daniel Markey, Senior Advisor on South Asia at the U.S. Institute for Peace, who spoke on the state of U.S.-India relations, how they have been impacted by U.S.-China competition and other strategic foreign alliances. Throughout the talk and the following Q&A session, Markey emphasized a critical point: While there pose substantial opportunities in strengthening U.S.-India ties, their future cooperation hinges upon resolving a lingering mistrust and taking decisive action on competing geopolitical priorities.
Despite holding dissimilar national values on democracy, India has been of resounding strategic importance to the U.S. for the past 30 years, aligned by material interest. This fledgling alliance has been consistent with modern U.S. foreign policy across partisan lines, from the Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal under Bush to the U.S.-India Critical and Emerging Technology initiative under Biden. Publicly, these relations have been lauded over shared values, but this eclipses the lingering tension that exists beyond a strictly strategic understanding; India refuses to be “boxed-in” by the U.S. setting strict terms of engagement.
As India and the U.S. attempt to reach a consensus, they must confront the conflicting nature of their multilateral alliances. Take the question of China: While both nations align on the issue of countering China’s rise, the basis for their opposition differs significantly, with India hesitating to oppose China aggressively due to concerns over Chinese incursions resulting from their disputed border. The Indo-Pacific Quad of the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan has largely been deterred from any activity due to India’s squeamishness — China has dubbed the Quad as an “Asian NATO” with a distinct anti-China bent, leading to India not wanting to rock the boat with it’s difficult neighbor. The U.S.’s tendency towards ardent competition with China would simply be an unwise attitude for Quad nations to adopt.
The misalignment between India’s and the U.S.’s relationship with Russia, the most substantial China- sympathetic global superpower, further complicates Washington and New Delhi’s partnership. U.S. criticisms of Russia violating state sovereignty through their invasion of Ukraine have had little weight on India’s stance, who instead view their relationship with Moscow as essential to their defense and energy strategy. Since the Ukraine conflict, India has increased its purchasing of cheap Russian oil from four percent to 40 percent and has invested in Russian S400 missile defense systems. India views Russia as a power that will never go away and will ultimately prevail in the war.
Russia’s dependence on China will have further ripple effects on the global order — despite the low risk of immediate economic transactions, India must reconsider its ties to Russia, especially as potential alienation by China and Russia grows increasingly likely. India’s participation in BRICS — an intergovernmental organization founded in 2009 between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and recently expanding to include other emerging economies — has seen the nation slowly vacuumed into Russia and China’s ambition of subverting the West. These nations have increasingly attempted to dominate the organization by promoting it as a strictly anti-Western and anti-U.S. entity, whereas other, less dominant member nations, such as India, want to use the alliance as a platform to promote “alternative” economic concerns.
India must be constantly vigilant of China and Russia’s influence, as the nation otherwise risks becoming the “junior partner” in the face of an aggressive geopolitical agenda. Furthermore, the incoming U.S. presidential administration must navigate U.S.-India relations through a lens of shrewd negotiation and strategic transaction. Our interdependence on India has been made abundantly clear, yet we must constantly ask ourselves: How will an alliance with India actually benefit us?
