ArmInfo.The processes around the South Caucasus will continue regardless of the outcome of
the US presidential elections. A similar opinion was expressed by diplomat Dzyunik Aghajanyan, the former Armenian Ambassador to the Netherlands and Indonesia, at the discussions hosted on the Genesis
Armenia platform.
The discussions were focused on the US elections
and their potential impact on the South Caucasus region and Armenia.
The diplomat is confident that the Democrats will not allow the
Republicans to win the elections, even if they have to resort to
falsifications. Aghajanyan added that the US is no longer hiding the
fact that they will not allow the project initiated after the Soviet
Union's collapse to be paused for a second, let alone change its
direction.
"The goal of the project is to fully subjugate the remaining parts of
the Soviet Union for the subsequent collapse of Russia. In other
words, the aim is to bring certain territories of Russia and its
resource base under the control of the Collective West. But the
problem is that after the Russia falls, it will not be difficult to
bring about the collapse of China as well," the diplomat believes.
In this regard, she noted that the South Caucasus, from the point of
view of the post-Soviet space, is a kind of junction, since it is
here that Central Asia and Europe intersect in terms of continental
communications.
"In addition, the process of destroying Iran can begin from our
region. This project has been implemented over the past 30 years and
has reached the point that we are seeing today. The Democrats cannot
allow it to be stopped," she noted.
Aghajanyan is convinced that it doesn't matter to Armenia who comes
to power in the US, whether it is Harris or Trump, as the West will
continue its actions against Iran regardless. "In other words, the
US, will use Turkey and Azerbaijan to carry out actions against our
neighbor Iran at our expense," the diplomat said. When asked if the
modernized project <Turan – a big Turkish dream> can now be
considered as one of the key NATO projects, being implemented with
direct US participation, the diplomat gave an affirmative answer.
However, according to her, it is necessary to take into account the
fact that the so-called Great Turan project holds different
significance for different beneficiary states. "While the US sees
this project as a tool for the collapse of Russia and Iran, then for
Turkey it is a tool to fulfill its Ottoman aspirations. And
Azerbaijan is entering a dangerous stage in terms of its resources,
as its oil resources are running out and it is no secret that the
significant portion of the gas it supplies to Europe comes from
Russian. In the future it may become a transit hub for distributing
gas between Russia and Central Asia. Additionally, Azerbaijan is
facing a pressing issue regarding water resources. It is no
coincidence that Azerbaijan is trying to seize Armenian water
sources," Aghajanyan noted, adding that the Armenian people may not
yet realize this, and individuals, lacking "reason" are making
judgments such as <why do we need mountains>, where snow remains for
half the year (statements by the Prime Minister of Armenia – Ed.),
not understanding that this snow plays a vital role in of Armenia's
security by ensuring its water resources, among other things. At the
same time, the diplomat noted that Azerbaijan, unlike Armenia, has a
clearly defined plan to secure its own water security, which is why
it is trying to control Armenian water sources.
"Unfortunately, Armenia has failed to properly assess its role in the
geopolitical situation. It is important to recognize that without a
connection to Turkey, Azerbaijan will also become a landlocked
country and rely heavily on Armenia and Georgia for exporting its
resources. Today's realities indicate that Artsakh was the screw that
maintained the geopolitical balance, and its removal made it possible
to implement these Western projects in the South Caucasus. The same
applies to Syunik; the role of this Armenian region should not be
overlooked," Aghajanyan believes.
According to her, if Armenia gives preference to NATO projects, it
will lose its statehood as the Homeland of Armenians. The country
will become a territory populated by Azerbaijanis and Turks, which is
the goal of the so-called "Western Azerbaijan" project. The diplomat
pointed out that Baku will use the pretext of returning so-called
refugees in the future to achieve this goal. In this vein, Aghajanyan
recalled that Azerbaijanis voluntarily left the territory of the
Armenian SSR before the Spitak earthquake of 1988, taking all their
belongings with them, selling their homes. Those who were unable to
do so received compensation in the amount of 72 million rubles from
the Armenian SSR, which wasn't the case for the Armenians expelled
from Azerbaijan. She also noted another reality, namely, living in a
particular territory does not imply having property rights over that
territory. Aghajanyan is sure that these narratives were discussed by
the current leader of Armenia with the Azerbaijani side even before
coming to power in April 2018. Otherwise they could have been
stopped immediately, which has not been done by the current Armenian
authorities.
Touching upon the decrease in Russian presence on the borders with
Iran and Turkey, the diplomat suggested that the Armenian
authorities' ultimate goal is to establish a neutral state. According
to her, this in turn could serve as a strategy for Russia's
withdrawal from the South Caucasus. "Unless, of course, we witness a
provocation by military action that will put the Russian Federation
in a hopeless situation. Moreover, the situation can develop
according to two scenarios: either Russia's involvement in military
actions within the framework of agreements with Armenia, including
along the CSTO line, which will lead to the opening of a second
front, or a refusal to engage in actions, which in turn will allow
the Armenian authorities to raise the issue of their withdrawal. In
fact, Russia will find itself in zugzwang. Therefore, Iran and Russia
are working to prevent any tensions, especially on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border, to avoid the need for involvement in a
potential conflict," the diplomat believes.
However, the diplomat continued, stating that regardless of who wins
the US elections, America will continue its plans in the South
Caucasus. At the same time, Aghajanyan believes that the
developments in Georgia, the position expressed by Iran in a form
that is not typical for its foreign policy, and the periodic
movements initiated by the opposition in Armenia after the 44-day war
have all contributed to the delay in the implementation of the West's
plans in the South Caucasus.
Nevertheless, she believes that the US will continue to implement its
plans in the South Caucasus, making certain adjustments along the
way. "I have concerns that in April-May there will be an attempt to
open a second front with another military provocation. Here the
question of the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan arises, and the
issue of border delimitation comes to the fore. And yes, I do not
agree with the assertions that this process could have been hindered
by the CSTO's September proposal to introduce troops to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border, which the Armenian authorities rejected.
I am sure that the CSTO could have easily deployed its troops on the
border with Azerbaijan and would not have hindered the delimitation
process in any way, and if it had been carried out in accordance with
international norms, then after the border had been appropriately
defined, they would have calmly moved to the new demarcation lines,"
Aghajanyan said. The diplomat is confident that such a course of
events, however, would have deprived the West and Azerbaijan of an
instrument of provocation against the Russian Federation and the
opportunity, if necessary, to open a second front in the South
Caucasus. She is sure that the Russian Federation agreed to withdraw
its troops from 17 points on the territory of Armenia to reduce the
possibility of being in zugzwang due to provocations from the West,
and the Armenian authorities took this step to make their borders
more vulnerable.
She is also convinced that the current authorities cannot refuse to
implement this US project, as they have certain obligations. However,
it has become obvious to the world that NATO is not the
military-political force they boasted about two years ago. The EU
does not have the financial and economic situation that it talked
about two years ago, and the West does not have the unshakable
influence in the world it claimed to have two years ago. "Turkey and
Azerbaijan were initially part of this project, but today they have
changed their position, they are dragging out time to negotiate
better terms with Armenia for signing a peace treaty and to avoid
commitments to the West, particularly actions against Iran," the
ex-ambassador believes. At the same time, she is confident that
Aliyev already understands that if he takes part in actions against
Iran, he could not only nullify the colossal achievements of recent
years, but also destroy Azerbaijan. Therefore, he is trying to back
down.
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