I took a different approach to headlining this column last week — teasing a specific pick instead of keeping it broad — and it immediately backfired.
One week ago I said to hold your nose, and pick the Dolphins. The Dolphins then went out and played maybe the worst game of football that’s ever been played.
The Titans, also a bad team, lost their starting quarterback early on and promptly got better with backup Mason Rudolph in there. It just wasn’t meant to be.
We were 1-3 last week, 10-10 overall since the start of football season. A good start to the year gave me some cushion, but now it’s time to go out there and get back on track.
This is the week the winning returns. Let’s dive in.
Navy -10 at Air Force
Saturday, noon, CBS
I know, I know: a road favorite as the first pick in the “get back on track” column defies conventional gambler’s logic, especially in a service academy game that usually profiles as close and low-scoring.
Not this one, though, as these two schools are far apart in terms of where they’re at this season.
Navy is rolling to start the year, 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread (3-0 against FBS teams, the lone failed cover was a 28-point win over Bucknell where the line was 31.5). The Midshipmen have scored 40-plus points in three of those wins, including the last two weeks in victories over Memphis and UAB.
What helps this team is that quarterback Blake Horvath, in addition to being a great runner as per usual in the triple option scheme, can also throw the ball pretty well. He’s passed for 637 yards through four starts, with seven touchdowns against just one interception.
That’s why Navy’s able to score so many points: the Midshipmen could grind you down and run the ball 20 times on a 13-minute drive, or they could beat you over the top.
Air Force hasn’t done either of those things this year. Their offense can’t get off the ground, held under 20 points in each of their last three games. Heck, the Falcons’ only win of the year was a 21-6 slog over Merrimack College.
They’re 0-4 against the spread this year, and I see no reason for that zero to change this week.
Arizona State -2.5 vs. Kansas
Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2
It seemed like we were primed for a good season out of Kansas, and I thought that would be fun to watch, but the Jayhawks are dead in the water.
Kansas is 1-4, riding a four-game losing streak as they head out to Tempe to take on Arizona State. The Jayhawks are 0-5 against the spread — they’ve played a lot of close games but can’t pull any of them out.
So with the numbers here indicating another close game, this one against a sneaky solid Sun Devils squad, I’ll take the home team giving less than a field goal.
Sam Leavitt’s dual threat ability has really shone through to start the year at Arizona State, and he’s got the Sun Devils at 3-1, last week being their first loss on the road against Texas Tech.
The Sun Devil defense has been solid, and they’re going to be the difference-maker here. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has thrown eight interceptions through four games, and he’s also lost two fumbles.
If Arizona State could turn the Jayhawks over, they’ll be able to put themselves in a good spot here. Everyone else has turned the Jayhawks over, why not the Devils?
NFL
Jaguars -2.5 vs. Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m.
I love this as a get-right spot for a Jaguars team that, in spite of it all, I’m not quite ready to give up on yet.
The Jags are maybe the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year, the last remaining winless team at 0-4. Tough schedule, for sure; three of those losses are to the Dolphins before Tua’s injury, the Bills and the Texans.
Now, looking for that first win and to salvage the season, Jacksonville gets to take on the worst defense in the league through four weeks.
The Colts are 32nd in yards allowed, 31st in rushing defense, 26th against the pass. If there’s ever a time for Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and the gang to find some rhythm, it’s here.
On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis has two major injury concerns: quarterback Anthony Richardson got knocked out of last week’s game, and Jonathan Taylor suffered a high-ankle sprain last week. They’re both questionable to play, Richardson practiced on Wednesday and Thursday while Taylor did not.
The game’s in Jacksonville, it’s a division rivalry — if the Jags can’t get up for this one, then they never will.
Cardinals +7.5 at 49ers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX
A lot of it’s probably due to injuries, but the Niners just aren’t jumping off the screen at me like they have in years past.
The main story there is Christian McCaffrey’s continued absence, but Jordan Mason has stepped in and done a good job running the ball.
Still, they seem to be a step behind where they were last year, and I think the Cardinals are going to go into the Bay Area and hang right with San Fran.
The Cardinals were humbled last week, a 42-14 loss to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. It’s a two-game skid for Arizona after a loss to the Lions the week prior.
I still like this team, I think we all too often forget how good Kyler Murray is. The connection between him and Marvin Harrison Jr. is starting to thrive, and it’s helping the offense mesh as a whole.
The Niners are dealing with some injuries to their defense, namely Fred Warner. Warner plans to play but he left last week’s game at halftime with an ankle injury. They’ve already lost Javon Hargrave for at least four weeks with a triceps tear.
The over might be in play here, too, as Arizona’s defense is pretty weak, but I think we’ll see a shootout here and the Cardinals will keep it within a touchdown.
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