So far this hurricane season, the United States has seen three tropical systems make landfall. Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, and Francine have all made their impact on the country. Until this week, though, those storms have had significant but not severe impacts. That may all be changing this week as a new tropical threat is developing in the Caribbean Sea.
Advisories already being issued
A broad area of low pressure formed Monday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continued to organize throughout the day. Meteorologists continue to monitor surface and atmospheric data to wait for the storm system to organize a central core and closed surface area of low pressure. Once this happens, the National Hurricane Center will classify this as a tropical cyclone. The next name on the list is Helene (pronounced Hel-EEN).
Because of the likelihood of this continuing to organize and strengthen, tropical storm watches are already in place for the Florida Keys while hurricane watches are in place for Cuba and Mexico.
Satellite image on Monday evening of a developing tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Sea. The next name on the list of hurricanes this year is Helene.
Steady to rapid strengthening expected before US landfall
The atmospheric environment ahead of the storm is expected to be favorable for it to intensify. The storm is also expected to grow in size. Most computer model data are in agreement that the storm will become a very powerful major hurricane before making landfall on Thursday along the Florida Gulf coast. Exactly where in Florida this will happen is uncertain this early in the forecast.
However, because of the forecast intensity of the storm, as well as the predicted size of the system itself, impacts will be widespread and far-reaching. Storm surge flooding is a major threat with landfalling hurricanes, especially with hurricanes that are as large as the predicted size of this storm.
People should not always simply focus on the exact line of where the center of the storm will make landfall, but rather on the broader scale of the impacts.
As of 8p.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center’s forecasted path of the storm brings it onshore in Florida Thursday, with the storm’s remnants being pushed northward this weekend. Users are reminded to not focus solely on the center line as impacts will be felt far away from the storm’s center.
Will our area see any impacts?
While it is too early to tell exactly if eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania will see any impacts from this system, the potential is there for us to see some rain this weekend as its remnants move northward. Computer model solutions diverge with exactly how far the moisture will make it, but with a storm of this size and magnitude, oftentimes it takes a while to wind down.
Should the moisture make it all the way up to the Great Lakes, the time frame where we would see any showers with the storm’s remnants will be Saturday and Sunday.
While the heaviest rain from the storm’s remnants will be to our south (as seen in the darker shades of yellow and purple), some moisture and light showers are possible over our region this weekend. This map is a 48 hour rainfall projection from Saturday morning to Monday morning.
You can always check our 7-Day Forecast for the latest local weather and impacts from this storm. For up-to-the-minute tropical weather coverage, check with the National Hurricane Center.