The excitement is rising as our probability for snow continues to increase for Sunday night in New England, with expected snowfall totals rising since our last update.
First we enjoy a little warmup and a little chance for rain Saturday afternoon. By the middle of the week, the warmup will be a distant memory.
Weekend:
Highs increase to the 40s on this Saturday, and we have scattered rain moving in between 4 and 9 p.m. It’s a quick rain chance, with around 0.1-0.25 inches falling overall as the rain moves out quickly.
After that system, we open the door to cooler air and the setup for snow Sunday. We stay in the upper 30s with increasing clouds as a coastal low develops off the Carolina coast Sunday.
Timing and snow totals:
The entire day remains dry with some clouds and pretty calm conditions. Then, by the evening, the storm heads our way.
At 4 p.m., a few snow showers move in, south to north.
As the low pressure system strengthens and passes offshore, it swings in more wind and snow through 8 p.m. Some ocean enhanced bands are possible and this helps to crank out higher snow rates, which helps to cool our temps, to increase some snow totals.
By midnight our mixing continues to turn to more snow on the South Shore, in Boston and on the Cape & islands. That rain/snow line sets up near the upper Cape and inland initially, then moves southeast overnight.
The back half of the storm is where we get the 1-2 inches of snow for the Cape & Islands with slush.
Meanwhile, in Boston we see steady snowfall for several hours and for areas inland Sunday night.
By Monday morning, we plow out of 4-8 inches of snow. Some areas will pick up 8 inches north and west of Interstate 495, based on fluffier snow consistency inland.
The storm tapers and moves early Monday morning. This leads to more arctic air and highs in the 20s by afternoon.
Temps may crash down as early as midnight in Boston, to teens by sunrise Monday. Watch for icy roads and quick snow accumulations then.
Snow rates between 6 p.m. and 2 a.m. will be 1-2 inches per hour in some spots.
Wind & Coast:
As is typical with an offshore low, we have a period of northeast wind gusts. The pressure center lowers enough to gust up to 30-40 mph at the coast, with inland spots up to 20 mph overnight Sunday.
While this isn’t quite damaging wind, it will be a nuisance on top of a period of heavy snow.
The shoreline will see some erosion on beaches as waves increase Monday morning as the low departs to the Canadian Maritimes. No coastal flooding is expected since tides are astronomically low.
10-Day Outlook:
Prepare for some wicked cold. The coldest air in two years creeps in Monday, with highs in the 20s, but wait — there’s more.
Highs fall to the teens Tuesday and Wednesday with lows around zero in southern New England. Wind chills are expected to be below zero. We modify temps later next week as a nearby storm systems bring in some precipitation chances to the northeast.
More on snow in Mass.
Massachusetts
12 hours ago
Rain to start New England's weekend, before winter storm hits with snow
Weather
Jan 17
Parts of New England could see 6 inches of snow this weekend
Weather
Jan 16
What is a polar vortex? And what does it mean for New England next week?